30 bbs deep in live tournament

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    • #25519

      At FT … 6 players left … 4 places paid … At 30 bbs, blind level 400/800 ante 100, I open AsTs from UTG+1 to 1700, reg agro player from MP shoves 9 bbs, BB with 25 bbs behind flats : My move here ??

    • #32977

      Easy fold imo unless the BB is a clueless fish.

    • #32978

      Jam. Since you didn’t say BB is a reg, it’s safe to assume he isn’t a pro. (If he is a strong pro, this is AA/KK only) He mainly calls because he can’t fold to either of your actions and his hand isn’t good enough to jam. As a result he is folding almost everything on this bubble, so just jam and take down a lot of dead money.

    • #32979

      BB has no FE after just putting in more than a third of his stack. Unless he is super fishy, he wont realize how bad is folding here. So even with decent players I fold, cause we are dominated a lot or flipping at best on the bubble.

    • #32980

      Trust me, people can and will fold in these spots. Decent/pro is pretty much the same here. No one decent calls here unless they have AA/KK but then very few players are decent and all of them are regs.

      This “dominated a lot”/”flipping at best” logic really tilts me. The point here is never that AT is miles ahead of their range. The point is they fold a lot and even when they call we have around 40% equity against the range with which they do this (excluding the good player AA/KK scenario, and even there KK more likely and we have 30% there too). Add to this the insane amount of money in the pot. There is now 23 BB in the pot and 28 in your stack. You need a VERY convincing reason to fold with this much money in. Getting it in with 40% equity against BB is much better result than fold, thanks to all the dead money.

    • #32981

      hmm, I know what you mean spree, but is this really a spot we need to take up right now ?

      Also,

      -If BB is a good reg : he only does this with AA and sometimes KK. So we are never jamming vs a good reg. This we both agree upon.

      -If BB is a bad player : then I think there is FE if we shove, which is the most important part of this move (FE). although I still might not want to take this spot on the bubble, but it +EV and not +$EV

      – If BB is a decent reg : and what I mean by decent in this context is someone, who knows that they cant fold after putting in 1/3 of their stack. So we dont have that much FE against this guy, which is what we really want. So here is where I really dont want to risk going down to 5BB, when I can still kill people with 28BB.

      Can you assign a range of hands , that a decent reg is flatting with the knowledge that someone is behind, and then folding to a shove ??

      Also OP, whats you perceived range/image on the table ?

    • #32982

      There is FE in this spot from weaker players in live Goa tourneys. The player has called 9bb with a stack of 25bb. Lots of weaker players would call (even hands like 99, TT, AQ etc) and then fold to a jam especially from a “female” player (excuse my sexual stereotyping here but many players assume female players to be tight and nitty especially at the bubble. In fact this should be used by OP to exploit). On the other hand if the BB is a reg/competent player this is a fold imo.

    • #32983

      min re raise and extract some moniezz 4 urself, fold him out on the flop ftw

    • #32984

      $$Troll$$, if someone realizes this he won’t call with anything but AA/KK!!! And that’s why there is no distinction between decent/good. I can’t agree with the premise that a decent player will call anything but AA/KK, but only regs are decent. If anyone knows he can’t fold after flatting, he will flat only AA/KK and shove/fold everything else.

      This issue about taking spots “right now” is silly. If a spot is +EV we take it. Also, i think it is +$EV. Money bubbles are overrated in terms of the amount of equity they are worth. Also, that is more of a reason to shove because weak players are acutely aware of this bubble and ICM (they understand and over-apply the concept, even if they haven’t heard the term)

    • #32990

      This issue about taking spots “right now” is silly. If a spot is +EV we take it.

      I think this is more applicable to cash games, where cEV = $EV , But in tournaments we have to sometimes let go marginal +cEV spots, to gain $EV. If this was a spot earlier on in the tournament , I think it would have been fine against certain opponents, but the bubble just changes things a bit, And I think this situation is a close example.

      Any reads on the BB , finesse ?

    • #32991

      I am talking about $EV. This is + $EV in my opinion. When i analyse a play in a tournament and say +EV i mean +$EV. I am an experienced enough tournament player to understand ICM and to understand that making +$EV plays matters when there are ICM considerations, I am slightly hurt that you would imply/assume otherwise.

      “I think it would have been fine against certain opponents”

      What does this mean? I don’t see anything about this opponent that makes this not fine…we know he’s not a reg as per OP. I mean if you’re asking OP for reads then how can you be sure this is not the kind of opponent you can try this move on?

      “The bubble changes things a bit”

      In what way does the bubble change things? You haven’t posted any kind of numbers or analysis either on how +EV this is or on how much $EV you might gain by laddering up. If you had numbers I can engage in this discussion. This comment is overly generalized and seems based on your general impression rather than any concrete analysis.

      Finally I have to point out that if the bubble does matter that’s all the more reason to do this, because the final decision will be on the villain, who will have to (and he will) respect ICM. In all likelihood he will overvalue ICM and make a bad fold.

    • #32992
      sunny sen
      Member

      I am talking about $EV. This is + $EV in my opinion. When i analyse a play in a tournament and say +EV i mean +$EV. I am an experienced enough tournament player to understand ICM and to understand that making +$EV plays matters when there are ICM considerations, I am slightly hurt that you would imply/assume otherwise.

      “I think it would have been fine against certain opponents”

      What does this mean? I don’t see anything about this opponent that makes this not fine…we know he’s not a reg as per OP. I mean if you’re asking OP for reads then how can you be sure this is not the kind of opponent you can try this move on?

      “The bubble changes things a bit”

      In what way does the bubble change things? You haven’t posted any kind of numbers or analysis either on how +EV this is or on how much $EV you might gain by laddering up. If you had numbers I can engage in this discussion. This comment is overly generalized and seems based on your general impression rather than any concrete analysis.

      Finally I have to point out that if the bubble does matter that’s all the more reason to do this, because the final decision will be on the villain, who will have to (and he will) respect ICM. In all likelihood he will overvalue ICM and make a bad fold.

      any cev calc ppl know here?

    • #32994

      @$$TROLL: BB had been active since I joined the FT … opening frequently, 3-betting light with AJo kinda hands and calling a shove by original raiser …

    • #32997

      I am talking about $EV. This is + $EV in my opinion. When i analyse a play in a tournament and say +EV i mean +$EV. I am an experienced enough tournament player to understand ICM and to understand that making +$EV plays matters when there are ICM considerations, I am slightly hurt that you would imply/assume otherwise.

      “I think it would have been fine against certain opponents”

      What does this mean? I don’t see anything about this opponent that makes this not fine…we know he’s not a reg as per OP. I mean if you’re asking OP for reads then how can you be sure this is not the kind of opponent you can try this move on?

      “The bubble changes things a bit”

      In what way does the bubble change things? You haven’t posted any kind of numbers or analysis either on how +EV this is or on how much $EV you might gain by laddering up. If you had numbers I can engage in this discussion. This comment is overly generalized and seems based on your general impression rather than any concrete analysis.

      Finally I have to point out that if the bubble does matter that’s all the more reason to do this, because the final decision will be on the villain, who will have to (and he will) respect ICM. In all likelihood he will overvalue ICM and make a bad fold.

      Not good with numbers , and yeah I was speaking in a general sense, cause live poker has so many dynamics on the table, that without being there, all I can give is general advice. specially without knowing OPs perceived range with this stack size.

      What my main point is, unless we know for sure, what the BB is doing here, we cannot risk going down to 5BB vs 28BB is we fold, just to take up a slightly +cEV spot. And if we do this, I think its -$EV . I would like to see someone break this down numbers wise.

    • #33012

      I don’t know what to say $Troll. You say it’s +CEV but -$EV but don’t give me any justification for why that’s the case. Also I think this is massively +CEV and not “slightly” so. Also, its just a fact that the payjumps in the money bubble are very small compared to the higher prizes and as such can’t effect your $EV so much at this stage.

      My other problem is that you’ve very irrationally decided that when we don’t know what a guy is like we always err on the side of taking nitty actions. This is very silly IMO and its a methodological issue. This is a mathematical spot and we can’t have mental biases in favour of not acting. Unless we know for sure, we make some kind of default assumption which incorporates everything we do know and factors in the probability of unknown stuff. If you have no idea at all, you assume he’s a reg some percentage of the time and do the calculation then.

      As for Trollguru- I commend your reading skills. As I pointed out above we don’t have to be ahead of the BB for this to be +EV. he just needs to be willing to fold hands that are better/flipping some of the time.

    • #33014

      I know there my opinions are not supported by maths, but after playing for a while, you sort of get a ‘feel’ for this thing. So that way my opinion could be biased, and you might be right. but I was just giving an opinion based on my experiences, which might be different from yours. Maths is the only way to settle this. Let me see if I can get someone on 2p2 to come here and do some math for us.

      I just dont know how to assign our FE against BB in the equation . I think he is almost never folding, and you think otherwise. This could actually be a case of online vs Live, but online, I just dont think people are folding in that spot ever.

    • #33008

      I think this is more applicable to cash games, where cEV = $EV , But in tournaments we have to sometimes let go marginal +cEV spots, to gain $EV. If this was a spot earlier on in the tournament , I think it would have been fine against certain opponents, but the bubble just changes things a bit, And I think this situation is a close example.

      Any reads on the BB , finesse ?

      1. The player had been 3-betting light n calling shoves with marginal hands

      2. Would it make a difference if there were 7 players left instead of 6 ??

    • #33003

      2. Would it make a difference if there were 7 players left instead of 6 ??

      +1 million. Best question of the thread. $$Troll really needs to answer this one.

    • #33004

      Just typed out a Huge reply for finesse, hit wrong button, everything erased, cant be arsed, be back later with the math and everything.
      Stop licking your chops spree, I will be back 😛

    • #25520
      sunny sen
      Member

      1700+9*800+9*800+400+100*6 = 17100 (in pot)

      stack left : 30*800-1700-100 = 22200

      1. BB folds 60% of the time, hu vs shover, with 50-50 equity:

      we win : .6*.5(17100+5500) = 6780 + 21*800

      2. BB calls 40% of the time with 55% equity vs us
      we win : .4*.55*(59*800+400+600) = 8676 (ignoring shrt stack in probability calc, 59 bb in play)+5*800

      3. stack if folded = 22200

      anytime BB calls we are in a shithole

      edit : for our call to be shit-awful : BB has to be calling around 50% of the time , and even then its marginally +cev

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