Could I have avoided going bust?

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    • #23921
      Simon Mint
      Member

      I’m just gutted as I write this…winning this hand could have got me into the top 50 in the FTP 100k first depositors freeroll, but instead I busted out after 3 hours of play. Feels like I got punched in my belly.

      This guy just doubled me up a few hands ago.

      I’m wondering if I could have played this a little more slowly and stayed alive or is it just bad luck?

      Thanks for any advice.

      *******************************************************************************************
      Full Tilt Poker Game #26154318416: $100,000 First Deposit Freeroll (196744884), Table 521 – 400/800 Ante 100 – No Limit

      Hold’em – 18:33:05 ET – 2010/12/05
      Seat 1: OneInTheOven (8,740)
      Seat 2: Hero (23,128)
      Seat 3: yc1980 (24,126)
      Seat 4: Diogo Calcada (8,552)
      Seat 5: Yarlyouje (48,320), is sitting out
      Seat 6: __dellboy92__ (10,774)
      Seat 7: psyhea (16,130)
      Seat 8: Bartolo90 (50,898)
      Seat 9: Rage2002 (895)
      OneInTheOven antes 100
      Hero antes 100
      yc1980 antes 100
      Diogo Calcada antes 100
      Yarlyouje antes 100
      __dellboy92__ antes 100
      psyhea antes 100
      Bartolo90 antes 100
      Rage2002 antes 100
      Hero posts the small blind of 400
      yc1980 posts the big blind of 800
      The button is in seat #1
      *** HOLE CARDS ***
      Dealt to Hero [Js Jd]
      Yarlyouje has reconnected
      Diogo Calcada folds
      Yarlyouje folds
      __dellboy92__ folds
      psyhea folds
      Yarlyouje has been disconnected
      Yarlyouje has reconnected
      Bartolo90 raises to 1,750
      Rage2002 has 15 seconds left to act
      Rage2002 folds
      OneInTheOven folds
      Hero calls 1,350
      yc1980 folds
      *** FLOP *** [Qs Qd Ts]
      Hero checks
      Bartolo90 bets 2,400
      Hero calls 2,400
      *** TURN *** [Qs Qd Ts] [Jc]
      Hero checks
      Bartolo90 bets 4,800
      Hero raises to 18,878, and is all in
      Bartolo90 calls 14,078
      Hero shows [Js Jd]
      Bartolo90 shows [Kh Qc]
      *** RIVER *** [Qs Qd Ts Jc] [Ks]
      Hero shows a full house, Jacks full of Queens
      Bartolo90 shows a full house, Queens full of Kings
      Bartolo90 wins the pot (47,756) with a full house, Queens full of Kings
      *** SUMMARY ***
      Total pot 47,756 | Rake 0
      Board: [Qs Qd Ts Jc Ks]
      Seat 1: OneInTheOven (button) folded before the Flop
      Seat 2: Hero (small blind) showed [Js Jd] and lost with a full house, Jacks full of Queens
      Seat 3: yc1980 (big blind) folded before the Flop
      Seat 4: Diogo Calcada folded before the Flop
      Seat 5: Yarlyouje folded before the Flop
      Seat 6: __dellboy92__ folded before the Flop
      Seat 7: psyhea folded before the Flop
      Seat 8: Bartolo90 showed [Kh Qc] and won (47,756) with a full house, Queens full of Kings
      Seat 9: Rage2002 folded before the Flop
      *******************************************************************************************

    • #29456
      Anuj Arora
      Member

      well, i would not have called Bartolo90 bets 2,400, with a JJ in the hand and QQ running on the board… that all in was a gutsy move but to your badluck…this pairs have always given me bad beats and have to be played very very carefully IMO. i have never won on AA (NEVER) i hope this makes you feel a lil better..
      by the way how many players were there ???

      May the flop bless your cards

    • #29457
      Simon Mint
      Member

      Hi tac_222,

      I have gotten over the beat after a good morning’s sleep 😉
      Not sure if you noticed, but I went allin only after the turn.
      I’m surprised you have never won a hand with AA. You must be extremely lucky in life, if you understand what I mean.

      Cheers!

    • #29459

      Just another FTP attrocities…. This is just one of em…..

    • #29460
      Anuj Arora
      Member

      Hey babyshark,
      you dint tell me how many players were there???

      May the flop bless your cards

    • #29461
      Simon Mint
      Member

      Sorry mate…there were 20216 Entries in total.

    • #29469
      Denny
      Member

      Depends a lot on the villian’s previous plays and your read on him .. other factors that need to be considered and information that is not available. Is he a decent player and likely to fold to a 4 bet re-raise preflop or is he a calling station?

      Personally I would have raised preflop strongly .. he may have laid down KQ … but anyway having only called I would call the 2,400 with the QQ board as I would not put him on a Q at that early a stage because of 1 c-bet.

      When you hit your J .. you are 90% to be ahead. My chips are going in regardless .. he is not laying his Q down. I probably would have pushed on the turn or the money was going in on the flop if he called a re-raise preflop .

      Unfortunately as the board only paired once it’s not easy to put him on exactly KQ on the river. I am calling with JJ in that spot as there are plenty of hands he may have called with and he is not putting you on JJ ..

      Just a cooler in my opinion .. happens.

      I certainly have been more aggressive preflop with JJ with only one raise at that point …

      Just a difficult hand on a very tricky board … just an unlucky situation and you could argue how to play this one in various ways … but I think if you know how your opponent plays you can apply the above advice.

    • #29473

      Personally I would have raised preflop strongly .. he may have laid down KQ … but anyway having only called I would call the 2,400 with the QQ board as I would not put him on a Q at that early a stage because of 1 c-bet.

      I strongly agree with MumbaiMagic. There’s a poker proverb “If your cards are good enough for you to call a bet, they are good enough to raise with”. With a pot of 3850 you are putting 1750 more with a pair of Jack, which is not justifiable. You certainly need to raise here and in most cases a hand with KQ will fold thinking that you might have a high pair or AK or AQ or AJ etc.. Your raise will definitely make him think like this and fact is he is not having an Ace, so probably go for a fold (if he is not a maniac).

      For your information (s=suited o=offsuited):

      Hand Rank|Pre-Flop Hand|Win % against Ace or any pair|Pre-Flop Hand|Win% against any random hand|
      1AA86.9AA85.2
      2KK71.7KK82.4
      3QQ69.5QQ79.9
      4JJ67.2JJ77.5
      5TT64.8TT75.0
      6AKs63.49972.1
      79961.88869.1
      8AKo61.6AKs67
      9AQs60.37766.2
      108859.4AQs66.2
      11AQo58.3AJs65.4
      12AJs57.1AKo65.3
      137756.8AQo64.6
      14AJo54.9AQo64.4
      156654.4AJo63.6

      JJ doesn’t seem to have a bad chance at all…… 🙂

    • #29476
      Denny
      Member

      There’s a poker proverb “If your cards are good enough for you to call a bet, they are good enough to raise with”.

      That is one mantra you should learn … also I hate limping (as a general rule, except from very late position) as it gives you no information preflop and you can end up with too many in the pot. (1 x caller with a raise is worth as much as 3 x limpers).

    • #29478

      That is one mantra you should learn … also I hate limping (as a general rule, except from very late position) as it gives you no information preflop and you can end up with too many in the pot. (1 x caller with a raise is worth as much as 3 x limpers).

      Correctly said…..Tight Aggressive is proper way to maintain your bankroll.

    • #29479
      Anuj Arora
      Member

      @ BABYSHARK : hey there just updating my jinx tale to you… was playing in the $1000 freeroll last night on VC, got AA three times and got beaten by trio of 3, a straight and finally a flush to blow me out of the tourney…
      fck this is getting on ma nerves… one thing i know for sure i will never fly in American Airlines…. crash is for sure…. 🙂
      (Laughing out of frustration)

      May the flop bless your cards

    • #29498
      Simon Mint
      Member

      @MumbaiMagic
      Great advice…I certainly should have re-raised preflop. I realize that now.
      The reason I don’t like to get into big pots with chip leaders is because I don’t like to go bust early on ITM and that’s the reason I didn’t want too much money in the pot. If I had to let the hand go I could as I would not invested as much.
      I absolutely didn’t put him on a Q and that was the reason for shoving on the turn. I was hoping he’d have KK or AA or if I was very lucky a pair of Tens. I just wanted to take the pot down right there. I didn’t care to see the river.

      I really like your posts and I’ve read all of them. You have a great style of explaining stuff and I would love to learn more about the game from you.


      @eternity007

      I’m not sure if the chart is entirely correct. I don’t think JJ vs AKs is a 77.5% favourite. It’s more like 55 to 45 favourite. I might be wrong about my numbers but it’s definitely not ahead 77%.

    • #29503
      Denny
      Member


      @eternity007

      I’m not sure if the chart is entirely correct. I don’t think JJ vs AKs is a 77.5% favourite. It’s more like 55 to 45 favourite. I might be wrong about my numbers but it’s definitely not ahead 77%.

      I don’t think this chart specifies AK suited .. it is just tellin you that on average JJ against any random hand holding A + X random card or any random pair is a 67.2 % fav …… that means it although JJ will be approx 82% against 2d 2c or 3d 3c etc; but it it will only be 54% against say As Qs. so if you take all the hands in the specified range then the average will be 67.2%.

      You are correct that the approx odds for Jh Jd v Ac Kc is 55% – 45%.

      53.68% Win 45.94%
      0.38% Tie 0.38%

      I would also like to thank you for the compliments .. very much appreciated; like you I am learning and find that analysing other people’s play helps my own game immensely. You always need to follow a sound decision making process and there a variety of factors which can alter your optimal play even when you have the same cards in the same position. Therefore it is not always possible to give the absolute correct optimal play as invariably you do not have all the relevant information and the player is unaware that the information required exists, can be or should be gleaned prior to adopting certain strategies.

      Even the greatest poker pros admit that thius is an ever evolving game and you can always learn something new. The player that thinks he has nothing to learn is the one most likely to be defeated.

    • #29507
      Simon Mint
      Member

      “……The player that thinks he has nothing to learn is the one most likely to be defeated.”


      @mumbaiMagic
      …Well said!

    • #29512

      it was just bad luck
      but i sure would want to add something here (please correct me if i am wrong)
      the shove on the turn was huge you had 18k, you should have min raised him because eventually your whole stack was going to go in
      because he was a big stack and could have been betting with air……..and should have given huge decent odds if he had a hand like flush draw or a King(OESD) or even AA or KK, because your shove could make these hands fold
      Sure if he had KK then you just get unlucky on the river nothing you could do about it

      As far as busting out is concerned you couldn’t have done anything, it was just another FULL TILT COOLER
      even if you had called the turn the river bet would have left you with about 3.5 to 4k (just 5 big blinds) thats nothing

    • #23922
      Denny
      Member

      but i sure would want to add something here (please correct me if i am wrong)
      the shove on the turn was huge you had 18k, you should have min raised him because eventually your whole stack was going to go in
      because he was a big stack and could have been betting with air……..and should have given huge decent odds if he had a hand like flush draw or a King(OESD) or even AA or KK, because your shove could make these hands fold
      Sure if he had KK then you just get unlucky on the river nothing you could do about it

      Sorry I disagree as I do not think there is anything wrong with his bet on the turn; (this is a tournament; not a cash game).

      The pot is large enough to take down there and then and he can close it out, I also do not consider the shove huge since it is less than a three bet allin.

      Regardless of the potential cards they holding there is already approx 15k in the pot

      He is calling the raiser’s 4.8k making the pot now almost 20k he is only raising it approx another 14k or so to go.

      I disagree with the analysis that he holds a flush/straight draw on the turn he will fold; There is more chance of him putting his chips in on the turn as opposed to him putting any more in on the river when he misses his draw (you would losing value if that was the case and simply give him a cheaper look at the river card if he has a hand that can outdraw you such as AA or KK or QX).Also if he has complete air he is folding anyway no matter the size of the raise.

      I certainly would not be bothered at this point if he fold as I have a healthy increase to my stack. I am certainly am not letting him see another card cheaply as that is plain suicide.

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