EPT hand close to bubble

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    • #25720
      4better
      Member

      sooo i just finsihed writing my sunday million blog but pokerhandreplays is down so ill prob post that tomm. sorry if this is hard to read dont know how to do hh stuff.

      ok so 80 from the bubble and half hour to go in ept main event. i have a pretty solid image for me the hands tht have gone to showdon have been legit (doubled up shorties 3 times in a row, AK vs AQ, AK vs 1010, AQ vs jj). now villain is old fuck who plays tight and real straightforward but tried pulling off two bluffs the whole day and both against me. i dont see him play for an hour and then against me he double barreled bluffed me with k7 on a qq1082 on turn adn river after i checked the flop to him. the second time i lead out on a qj9 board with kq only for him to reraise me with a7 and bet on turn and shut down river when both streets went brick brick. so hes got some game.

      anyways blinds are 1200/2400 300ante 9handed.
      ep stack around 150k
      old man around 115k
      me 180k

      ep raises to 5.5k, i make it 14400 from cutoff with A4ss. oldie makes faces takes forever and calls from bb and ep raiser calls.
      flop
      10s 5s 6c
      checked to me i make it 18700 and old fuck THROWS(not bet, but actually grabs a fistfull of 5ks and dumps it ) to 45k hes got around 60ish k remaining.
      half hour left for days end and 80 ppl till cash(if that makes a diff) with preflop action it seems like he has to be setmining. but if he has set would he call hoping to get the ep raiser in the pot aswell? i would say tht im pretty confident that he would fold JJ to a shove.

      what do you guys think….shove or fold?

    • #33479

      Shove and it’s not even close. If he really is tight I can’t see him flatting 55 or 66 to a three bet with action still remaining behind him and there is just one combo of TT. And even if he does flat 55 or 66 which is really not tight, he still has a wider range than sets here.

      He could have plenty of draws/combo draws/random bluffs/top pair won’t fold hands here and this is not even for your tourney life (not that this would deter me) and you have huge equity against them. He is capable of bluffing here and especially if he can fold a monster like JJ here just jam it in!!

    • #33481

      Arjun, First up, Congrats on the Milly sickness,,, Very very wp…
      About the hand in question, I would prefer to check back this flop a lotta times with A4ss, just because villain has shown tendencies of check raising against you, also when u bet here, where u planning to bet get it in 48bb eff or where u bet folding? Now when people throw in Chips, especially the old ones, they pretty much have it and they are never letting go of whatever they have. ( I could be wrong here, But this is what I have felt over the last 16 months of playing ). So basically with this read, I probably would just check back see a turn… Also, what do u think his flatting range is here? I dont think he is peeling uber light here in this spot. I dont think he is ever peeling a 3 bet with 78ss,79ss types, so basically the only draw we are up against is KQss, QJss, QTss, JTss ( although i still think its highly improbable in a 3 bet pot). In such a deep tourney with a great structure, I am ok with passin this spot coz he is gonna give u a lot more oppurtunitites at his stack all day…And I dont think he is ever folding with 55kish behind…

    • #33482

      Spree- There are 3 combos of TT there, 6combos each of 55 and 66. Thats a total 15 combos of sets. And, even Tight players have a tendency to Overplay low-mid PPs, at least preflop, just to see if they Hit a set. And, you are saying he is tight enough to fold 55-66 preflop, and yet, loose enough to bluff half his stack in a Multiway pot ? It dont make sense .

      4better- I think it looks like he wants to just get in. Looks very much like a set to me. And the fact that he has already shown you a couple of bluffs, makes it less likely for him to bluff, also since this is multiway pot. I dont think we have any FE there. I would fold. And, I assume that the EPT structure favours deepstack play ? If so, I dont think there is any need to punt here.

    • #33483

      sorry Ts is on the board.. SO take away QTss and JTss…

    • #33485

      Guys, this is an old guy in European tourney, not old guy in Goa!!

      Samohh- I strongly feel you are giving too much weightage to the manner in which he put in chips/his age etc. We have seen this guy making highly aggro plays with complete air already, interspersed with what Arjun says is tight and straightforward play. I feel we can’t profile this guy as some old goa type nit, so I personally feel very uncomfortable with extrapolating too much from data such as his age or whether he was making faces or dumping chips into the pot randomly.

      $$Troll- That’s exactly what Arjun said- that he is playing really tight pre but trying weird aggro bluffs post-flop. This isn’t an online nit-fest but a live 10k event in Europe where pretty much everyone should be treated as lagtard unless proven otherwise. This dude has already tried two bluffs with complete air against us and yet we want to put him on sets only? I mean he has to have AA/KK/QQ/JJ in his value range as well.

      If this guy is peeling 55 and 66, I’ve gotta think he’s gonna peel all these suited connectors and gappers as well. TBH I don’t expect a “tight” guy to flat either of those but they are equally likely IMO.

      Also I feel that this guy is clearly a thinking player (let aside whether his thought process is good or not) and there is nothing particularly strong about our line here (maybe 3-bet + c-bet looks uber-strong in Goa, but in a European deepstack live, its pretty standard and no one would assume your range is monsters only).

      Ultimately, with the nut flush draw and with a playable stack even if I lose, I am just not willing to fold to this guy at this point.

      So just for reference, I ran this through fold equity calculator- http://www.fpppro.com/fold-equity-calculator.php

      With these stack sizes and assuming an equity of 40% this shove is profitable even if he never ever folds.

      If you have 35% equity when called he needs to fold 6% of the time.

      There’s already 110k in the pot by this point and we can max lose 80k more (which won’t even end our tourney life) this is an absurdly easy shove. It’s basic math and I don’t think this is a spot where we can waffle around with arguments about deepstack poker, tournament life and finding better spots.

      In other words, if its even remotely possible that he’s bluffing or that he has an overpair he might fold, this is a snap shove. Given that he is obviously very likely to take this line with AA/KK/QQ/JJ (which he might flat pre, either because he’s unsure of strength for JJ/QQ or to trap with AA/KK), I just can’t ever see a case for folding here.

    • #33486

      50 bbs effective we flop overcard and nut flush draw I am never folding this in 3b pot. 48k or so pre in the pot we are 100k effective, but folding this would be terrible, basically we 3b and hit a flop like this, I wont be folding…..way too much equity.

      Also hate checking the flop, just bet -get it in, isnt this what we were hoping for when we 3b pre??

    • #33490
      4better
      Member

      hmm i think i should make some more things clearer about the oldie. yes he tried two bluffs. but 2 bluffs in 8 hours. only reason i mentioned it was it was against me so i was thinking maybe he thought he could get me. although to be fair id probably try bluff me instead of the euro kids. or maybe he was just racist 🙂 also another thing why i mentioned him as an oldie is because oldies are calling stations(he would get 3bet and call oop often) and oldies are the type to overplay their AA and KK so theres noooooo way in hell he would be slow playing anything here.
      so as u guys probably guessed(well the ones who have played with me) and also as i have named him old fuck i jammed and he had 1010. turn was a 7 so made for a good sweat.

      @samoh i dont like checking because when the flop came i was actually thinking ep would def make a move on this sort of flop against me(competent lag euro) and i was shoving on top if he did. also these guys are pretty aggro (ep)(most of the european kids in the tourny actually, it was fun stuff) and these guys would be running me over if i check flop and call turn. i dont feel that comfortable raising turn cause if i get called it always leads me to jamming river no matter what card comes if it gets checked to me.

      anywyas this post wasnt really about the spot more about the live tells, this spot i jam here 10/10 times. live tells all indicate to flopped set. the spot is telling to shove all the time. aces in this spot i fold because that how sure i was he had it i basically thought its 1% bluff, .5% kqs(dont really see him calling it pre) and 98.5% set but still called. i know now ull say its retarded to call if im tht sure he has set but with nut flush draw i just couldnt get my self to do thinking baout going into day 3 double average and if i got a good table id be able to take full advantage with money bubble coming up….i know thats alot of random shit to think about but that what was going on through my head at that time.

      @suicide and intervntion. i agree this is a spot u should be shoving online all the time. but this is live and i was lucky it was against a oldie who gave away sooo many tells in one hand to make me sure it was a set. so on the flop lets say cards are face up after i bet 17700 and he raises to 45k, i know he has a set and i know if i shove he will call. will u still shove?

    • #33491
      sunny sen
      Member

      hmm i think i should make some more things clearer about the oldie. yes he tried two bluffs. but 2 bluffs in 8 hours. only reason i mentioned it was it was against me so i was thinking maybe he thought he could get me. although to be fair id probably try bluff me instead of the euro kids. or maybe he was just racist 🙂 also another thing why i mentioned him as an oldie is because oldies are calling stations(he would get 3bet and call oop often) and oldies are the type to overplay their AA and KK so theres noooooo way in hell he would be slow playing anything here.
      so as u guys probably guessed(well the ones who have played with me) and also as i have named him old fuck i jammed and he had 1010. turn was a 7 so made for a good sweat.

      @samoh i dont like checking because when the flop came i was actually thinking ep would def make a move on this sort of flop against me(competent lag euro) and i was shoving on top if he did. also these guys are pretty aggro (ep)(most of the european kids in the tourny actually, it was fun stuff) and these guys would be running me over if i check flop and call turn. i dont feel that comfortable raising turn cause if i get called it always leads me to jamming river no matter what card comes if it gets checked to me.

      anywyas this post wasnt really about the spot more about the live tells, this spot i jam here 10/10 times. live tells all indicate to flopped set. the spot is telling to shove all the time. aces in this spot i fold because that how sure i was he had it i basically thought its 1% bluff, .5% kqs(dont really see him calling it pre) and 98.5% set but still called. i know now ull say its retarded to call if im tht sure he has set but with nut flush draw i just couldnt get my self to do thinking baout going into day 3 double average and if i got a good table id be able to take full advantage with money bubble coming up….i know thats alot of random shit to think about but that what was going on through my head at that time.

      @suicide and intervntion. i agree this is a spot u should be shoving online all the time. but this is live and i was lucky it was against a oldie who gave away sooo many tells in one hand to make me sure it was a set. so on the flop lets say cards are face up after i bet 17700 and he raises to 45k, i know he has a set and i know if i shove he will call. will u still shove?

      wall of text for the easiest bet call ever

    • #25721
      Denny
      Member

      hmm i think i should make some more things clearer about the oldie. yes he tried two bluffs. but 2 bluffs in 8 hours. only reason i mentioned it was it was against me so i was thinking maybe he thought he could get me. although to be fair id probably try bluff me instead of the euro kids. or maybe he was just racist 🙂 also another thing why i mentioned him as an oldie is because oldies are calling stations(he would get 3bet and call oop often) and oldies are the type to overplay their AA and KK so theres noooooo way in hell he would be slow playing anything here.
      so as u guys probably guessed(well the ones who have played with me) and also as i have named him old fuck i jammed and he had 1010. turn was a 7 so made for a good sweat.

      @samoh i dont like checking because when the flop came i was actually thinking ep would def make a move on this sort of flop against me(competent lag euro) and i was shoving on top if he did. also these guys are pretty aggro (ep)(most of the european kids in the tourny actually, it was fun stuff) and these guys would be running me over if i check flop and call turn. i dont feel that comfortable raising turn cause if i get called it always leads me to jamming river no matter what card comes if it gets checked to me.

      anywyas this post wasnt really about the spot more about the live tells, this spot i jam here 10/10 times. live tells all indicate to flopped set. the spot is telling to shove all the time. aces in this spot i fold because that how sure i was he had it i basically thought its 1% bluff, .5% kqs(dont really see him calling it pre) and 98.5% set but still called. i know now ull say its retarded to call if im tht sure he has set but with nut flush draw i just couldnt get my self to do thinking baout going into day 3 double average and if i got a good table id be able to take full advantage with money bubble coming up….i know thats alot of random shit to think about but that what was going on through my head at that time.

      @suicide and intervntion. i agree this is a spot u should be shoving online all the time. but this is live and i was lucky it was against a oldie who gave away sooo many tells in one hand to make me sure it was a set. so on the flop lets say cards are face up after i bet 17700 and he raises to 45k, i know he has a set and i know if i shove he will call. will u still shove?

      Too be honest every player is going to have wildly differing views on this. This is basically those who believe in equity calls (based entirely on possible perceived range which I would say in cash play makes 100% sense) v those who believe tournament play has to factor in other decisions such as the bubble, stack you are left v blind structure and whether or not you know he has the goods.

      Personally I may have called hoping to spike the flush and avoid the board pairing but that doesn’t make it the correct decision; plus it’s really hard to say since I am prone to doing one or the other depending on my mood.

      However I’d say if you are 100% sure he has spiked trips then protecting your stack and not gambling may probably have been the better (tournament) decision, well certainly not wrong, since that 80k could be worth 160k or 240k in a few hands time. Whereas if you lose that 80k you have to make it back and if you go card dead or run into more bad luck it’s not always easy to just claw it back.

      I do not think simply because it’s EV+ necessarily justifies it being the correct play in a tournament based on that sole factor. Others will simply point out in the long run it will be the correct decision but one hand in a tournament can affect your position, stack and tournament … but that is only my opinion.

      You can really make a case for either play at the end of the day. Sometimes there is just no ‘correct’ decision and simply personal preference or style.

      I think at the end of the day you suspect it was not the best decision given all of the information you had plus your gut feeling but the decision was neither right or wrong … just one of those hands.

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