Limpers and Punishers

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    • #26444

      Poker Stars $4.00+$0.40 No Limit Hold’em Tournament – t500/t1000 Blinds + t125 – 9 players – View hand 2003238
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      UTG+1: t21499 M = 8.19
      UTG+2: t49236 M = 18.76
      MP1: t8039 M = 3.06
      MP2: t46583 M = 17.75
      Hero (CO): t28559 M = 10.88
      BTN: t26980 M = 10.28
      SB: t19320 M = 7.36
      BB: t25325 M = 9.65
      UTG: t92359 M = 35.18

      Pre Flop: (t2625) Hero is CO with 9 T
      , UTG+1 calls t1000, UTG+2 calls t1000, MP1 calls t1000, , Hero raises to t28434 all in, , MP1 calls t6914 all in

      Flop: (t20453) 3 2 J (2 players – 2 are all in)

      Turn: (t20453) 9 (2 players – 2 are all in)

      River: (t20453) K (2 players – 2 are all in)

      Final Pot: t20453
      MP1 shows 3 A (a pair of Threes)
      Hero shows 9 T (a pair of Nines)
      Hero wins t20453

    • #34922

      You thot u had fe against a limper with 8BB?? or just the urge to gamble? 🙂

    • #35151
      Arjun Parmar
      Member

      You thot u had fe against a limper with 8BB?? or just the urge to gamble? 🙂

      DV must be like kya bore karre lets gamble… wieeeee

    • #35158

      nice squeeze, wp, imo,

    • #35163
      rohit3887
      Participant

      hmm is just calling very bad over here???…doesnt T9dd palys very good multi may…obv there is a chance we might one of the remaining 3 players might raise….

    • #35177

      hmm is just calling very bad over here???…doesnt T9dd palys very good multi may…obv there is a chance we might one of the remaining 3 players might raise….

      T9dd plays well multi-way when you are decently stacked. With such shallow stacks, flop mining isn that profitable. Also, squeeze shove is bad because we have no fe against MP1 (unless you ave some sick read that he will fold to a shove) and most of the time we are just gambling.

    • #35195

      It’s not just about gambling, for me I was 99% sure I would be playing with MP1 not just because of his stack size but because he would be getting good odds to call while closing the action.

      What range do you think he has when he calls with such a Short stack? A weak ace or a King? any broadway would’ve meant all-in straight away for him given 2 people have limped behind him, any pair would’ve meant all-in for him, so he is pretty much reduced to JQo, J8s-K9s, A2-A8, K5-KT, I guess this is the top of his calling range, he can worst then this too, anything more he would’ve shoved. Against this range, 9Ts has an enormous equity of 45% when he calls.

      There’s also a minute chance that he folds, let’s cancel it out with the minute chance he slow played his monsters.

      So, when he calls me, I risk 8039 to win a pot of 20453, so I need an equity of 39% to make the call. But, I don’t even need to make the call, thanks to the 2 limpers before, they have given much better odds to shove.

      Very important thing to understand is it’s not about being behind!! It’s about getting the right odds to play!! It’s about CALCULATED RISKS. Poker is not about having good cards, it’s not about better spots, it’s about the best move in that particular spot.

      I would repeat this play any day until of course I am logically explained by someone that it’s -EV, I am very open to discussion on this hand and would be a great way to learn.

      I actually thought through the range of cards and only then shoved, you can call it a gamble. But, then again Life’s a big fucking Gamble 😉

    • #35196

      hmm is just calling very bad over here???…doesnt T9dd palys very good multi may…obv there is a chance we might one of the remaining 3 players might raise….

      Calling is bad, not just because there’s a better way to play this spot, but also because we are giving much better odds to people behind us to shove, they can shove as wide as 45s 79s and still be +EV because if we limp it becomes even tough for MP1 to call as he won’t be closing the action and maybe he won’t like to play his card multiway and it would be difficult for us to call with 9Ts we won’t be getting the right odds to do it. So, it would be a profitable shove IMO from anyone behind us with even a wider range than us.

    • #35197

      Thanks, that matters to me

    • #35198

      DV must be like kya bore karre lets gamble… wieeeee

      I actually do that a lot of times 😀

    • #35199

      nice squeeze, wp, imo,

      Thanks, that matters to me 🙂

    • #35200

      @DV The player is so retarded that he is limping with 8BBs, its a very futile exercise to give him a range. But yes you will always be around 40-43% against his range. You are correct as long as this part of your analysis is correct. What you did not consider & what makes this a marginally -EV shove is this:

      “It’s not just about gambling, for me I was 99% sure I would be playing with MP1” So you think there is only 1% chance that any of the BTN, SB, BB wakes up with a hand in the range of 99+,AQ-AK and call your shove??

      Please review that because you will find this % to be around 13.5%. Of the 13.5% of times when your shove get called by one of BB,SB,BTN. you will have around 26% equity. I recommend you to please incorporate that in your EV analysis. Once you do this you will find your shove to be -EV

    • #35201

      Even if you tweak the BTN,SB,BB calling range to your shove to be very tight. There is no way you will find this shove to be a very profitable one. On average this shove will have a EV~0 (slightly negative) and that why I called it a gamble.

    • #35204

      Jag is absolutely right;

      Esp that assigning hard ranges to idiots who are limping with 10 BB is just pointless. I have seen everything from AA, AK, KJ, 88 to 25ss being called by villains in these spots.

      Your best case scenario here is a marginally +EV flip with this idiot.

      For that you are risking the chance that someone behind wakes up and snaps you AND that someone in EP was trapping a big hand, or that they limped something decent and then didn’t want to fold. I am just not seeing this.

      Interestingly if you must do this just raise to 4555 and call if the MP shoves fold to rest (though fold is by far best option here IMO)

    • #35209

      This is interesting, I completely accept that I just ignored the fact that someone would wake up behind me, I do that most of the times, my BAD.

      K, so now the thing is, we can be called 15% of times with a monster(top 5%) i.e. 99+ AJs+ AKo AJs+ KQs+, I have 30% Equity against this range.

      Ok, so breaking things down:

      85% of times I’ll be going for a 45-55 flip with 8BB stack,
      15% of times I’ll be called by someone with a monster, when I have 30% equity.

      So, how does this fair now?

      .862*(.45*(12414) – .55*(8039)) + .137*(.308*(34184)-.692*(28559)) = -260 -EV by .26BB a really nice estimate by Jagdeep

      A flawed assumption in this calculation is when we go 3 way all-in MP1 also calls, I am taking advice from Prabhat for these fools, So I give him a random range(How cool is that)

      I’ll try to do that calculations also now,

      so, now, the second part changes
      .862*(.45*(12414) – .55*(8039)) + .137*(.308*(41098)-.692*(28559)) = +30.76, Hilarious, this is really close (how close can it get!)

      Regarding Calculations
      The important thing is MP1 is so stupid that we don’t know if he’ll call or not! Obviously he’ll call with good cards and fold crap, so my equity in the calculation would be lower than the assigned random when he calls, therefore I am in not much of a doubt that it’s a -EV shove
      Also, nobody behind me had greater stack than me, so values would be different for different players, but it’s not easy to calculate in this condition.

      I can safely conclude that it’s very marginally negative as predicted by Jagdeep, Kudos to you mate, I love numbers, so Wanted to solve this thing out, anybody has different views yet? 🙂

    • #26445

      This is the problem with doing math without applying your brain.

      To begin with the fact that he can have a wide range doesn’t mean you assume he calls with ATC, which is what you have done. While he might have random stuff, its much more weighted to stuff that is at least semi-decent. I mean your assumption that he calls 27o here is pretty terrible.

      Also MAJOR ERROR, which I pointed out earlier and you still haven’t noted. You randomly assume UTG and UTG + 1 fold 100% of the time. They are probably calling around 10-15% of the time each, which is why this isn’t marginally negative. It is ABSOLUTE SPEW.

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