The Heart Break Fold

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    • #25445

      Blinds: 150/300-25
      Effective stacks : Hijack : 14k
      Hero : 12k ( AKo)
      SB : 3k
      BB : 21k.
      Action. Hijack ( Macau Reg, Old guy, Plays pretty Straight forward) opens for 750.
      Hero ( Certified Baller) : 3 bets to 1950
      SB ( New scandi kid in Macau , I had 4 bet jammed on him once Button vs Blind with K9dd and he snap mucked) : Shoved for 3k
      BB: ( Straight forward Chinese guy , looked pretty Nitty , only limps medium to small pairs and suited connectors) : Reshoves.

      Hijack :Folds
      Hero: Folds AKo.

      Thoughts?

    • #32759
      sunny sen
      Member

      ok fold

    • #32760

      I tweeted you before u posted… IMO good fold..

    • #32761

      Fold i think…..

      I am not really worried about the scandi guy as he will have a very wide range of shoving 3k in this spot.
      Hijack might have taken some of your outs.

      If say you would have opened here for 750 alone in the pot…and BB would have shoved for 21k right away.
      Would you have called then giving his history????

    • #32762

      only a read based fold

    • #25446
      Jan
      Member

      only a read based fold

      Agree, folding AKo with 40 bb is indeed heart breaking, but in this case you’re up against the same hand or QQ/JJ at best. I also don’t think the scandi kid is shoving here that light given he has no fold equity, so he might have one of your outs.

      I did play around with PokerStove and this confirms it’s a fold. For the ~9600 sidepot the BB with a range of JJ+,AQs+,AKo is @ 35% to win 3-way (I gave the scandi kid 88+,AQs+,KQs,AQo+,KQo). You are @ 32%.

      For the ~18k main pot you are @ 43% to win, not taking card removal effects into account.

      For the sidepot you’re risking 1k more, getting great odds, but for the main pot you’re risking 9k more @ 43% to win.

      So this one of these spots where you’re basically gambling to get a bigger stack, better to fold and move on to a spot where you have an edge.

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