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MMQB…..Week 2

Posted by Vinod KK on 2012-11-27 at 12:00 AM

It was finally good to see my plan in action. Played 8 tournies..1x Big 22, 4x SnG 4.5, 2x MM3, and 1x satellite. Was in the money only in one of the SnG where i finished 10th. But absolutely loved the way I collected data which I have never done in my whole life. So basically what i started doing is I fire up this amazing tool called Notepad:-). So whenever I get into a tricky spot or even when i feel i made a good play immediately that goes into the notes. The idea is whenever i will review my HH sometimes in the future I know which ones to visit. So i have a bunch of hands which I would like to post but just did not get the time to convert them yet. Will do that pretty soon though. So now my excel that i compiled has the list of tourneys, notes, win/loss, time and also a hyperlink to the HH folder for easy access. Will try to make this data collection more robust and less tedious in the near future.

A part from that there are two themes that i would like to touch upon which you cannot avoid if you are into poker. One is the math involved which is pretty much what should be driving all your decisions. I definitely find it pretty easy to understand the math behind all these actions but the tricky part is actually calculating it. I do not have issue doing the mental arithmetic but while calculating your odds against range without pokerstove is really challenging. There are lot of charts out there that clearly defines how each hand plays against top 5%, top 10% etc etc but memorizing this is going to be nearly impossible. Another thing is experience does help you in most situations but i feel there are so many permutation/combination and too many different situations that happen in poker I feel the best decision can only be made if you do the math on the spot during the tournament. So over the course of the next 2-3 weeks I will be devising some sort of plan which will make it much easier to calculate what your odds are against a range. I am just going over the charts and trying to figure out a easy way of memorizing or detect some sort of pattern. Anyways these are the scenario’s i am planning to calculate some logic behind all those chaos.

[B]Post flop/turn/river: [/B]calling a opponent bet. This one is the easiest because the range is smaller that you assign to the opponent and it is much easier to calculate these based on the outs you need in different scenarios.. You know your outs/your implied odds if any etc. General thumb rule here is on flop number of outs times 4 and on turn number of outs times 2 gives you your percentage of winning. Obviously you should calculate the net odds depending on the range so you just do the weighted average across the range of hands.

[B]Pre-Flop -Calling an opponent all-in:[/B] This also I find it little easier. Simple calculations. You know what is in the pot and how much you need to call. So the decision is simple: does these two numbers justify a call? A classic example is the coin toss. Let us say there is 50 in the pot and you need to call 50 to win a total of 100. Your odds is also 50%. So you should call it every time. Less to call then it is even better, more to call to win a smaller pot then it is not justifiable. But in poker again you are up against a range of hands. So i am trying to come up with some pattern or tips which would make decision much easier in an actual tournament.

Once the above two math are established shoving into an opponent calculations becomes much easier. You just need to know your fold equity which is the amount you win when he folds. The remaining times he calls (based on his calling range) will be your odds calculated from the above two scenarios. So i am pretty much trying to nail the two above scenarios in the upcoming 2-3 weeks adn try get some easy tips on calculating or memorizing it. Worst case scenario i guess memorize it all:-). Will definitely share the findings.

[B]Second theme [/B]or rather topic that i would like to point out is this amazing interview of some poker pro that satyakee sen shared. I did not get time to go through the whole interview because i was just curious about one thing: Game theory. As wiki defines “Game theory is a study of strategic decision making”. So basically what this kid has done is they have come with some simplistic games and tried to see how decisions made using this simplistic game can then be extrapolated to more complex games. So hopefully i can explain the same here and i hope I can do justice to it. So the game goes like this.

There are only 3 cards in the deck. A K Q. So Ace beats a King and that in turn beats a Q. Now you each are dealt one card and the higher card wins. Now whenever you have an Ace you always bet or check and induce a bet. But if your opponent figures out that you only bet when you have an Ace he is not going to be paying you off in the long run. So now you have to mix in some bluffs in there. Here is where the interesting bit comes in. You should bluff with the Q and never with the K. Because if you bluff with a King, Queen will always fold and an Ace will always call. This is where balancing your range concept comes into play. you always keep your opponent guessing but you have to do with the right range. The same thing can be applied obviously in a complex way to poker too. But i thought understanding this is very important and it is much simpler to do with a simple game first. And these guys have come up with different simplistic games in trying to understand what the best decision or strategy should be. It is really amazing.

And PGMP2 mates are just rocking. Antilog, dv and others are just putting good volumes and these guys are showing amazing results. I can just feel it one of the PGMP mates is going to ship one huge one for sure and we are going to have a big party in December. I am not sure who that person is but definitely either the mentors or the PGMP 1 and 2 boys. Until next week good luck. And i will post some hands soon on the forum so please advise.

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Vinod KK

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