In light of the current topic going on in PGMP I am revisiting a hand that I faced at PGT which I briefly discussed with my friend Jagdeep who at time had mentioned that may be a shove pre flop from UTG with pocket 44s will be +EV but we didn’t go into detail discussion at that time. Last session of PGMP I was reminded of this hand so we again discussed and here is our analysis of the same.
Now I had Pocket 44s UTG in the 7k bounty tourney and I had c. 10bb with me :confused:. I folded then but on analyzing that situation I came to realize that it would have been a + EV shove. Jaggi was right.:cool:
The pot is aproxx 2.5bb as the antes had kicked in. So, what range will call me there? Well we took 66+, ATs+, AJ+, KQs as the calling range for this analysis which are a total of 110 hand combinations consisting of 54 combination of pairs 66+, 16 of Ats+, 36 of AJ+and 4 combinations of KQss.
This is top 8.3% of total combinations possible. This means approx. 91.7% of the times people are going to fold. So my overall fold equity there is 91.7%^8 (considering 9 handed table) = 50%. Rest of the times I will have equity of 36% (courtesy pokerstove) and 36% of the times when I get called I will win 12.5 bb and I will lose 10bb rest of the 64% times.
All in all it will be a .32 bb +EV shove. Calculated as 50%*2.5+32%*(-10)+18% *12.5. You will find a detailed calculation in the excel attached.
Moreover apart from the fact that it is +EV shove we should also shove there coz we are UTG and next hand we are going to be left with 9bb and then 8.5bb which may hamper our fold equity by a great deal. The calling range will keep expanding as we keep on getting blinded out. like at 8.5bb may be all pairs will call and KJ will also contemplate etc. So by shoving here we are not only making a +EV move but we are also protecting our future fold equity.
Next point we should consider is does antes make a difference? and what stack sizes we should shove with? Following table show shows our EV at different scenarios and the answer to both questions is clear:
This was an eye opener for me and I hope to open a few more eyes. I would like to thank Jagdeep to spare some time and take me through the analysis. Thanks a tonne mate. Needless to say PGMP rocks.
PS no one here is advocating a 30bb shove with 44s just shown for the purpose of explanation.