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We were down to two left in the high rollers. Opponent is Harshad(our PGT high rollers champion), an unorthodox player who tends to often slow play pre flop and on flop. He has over bet four times already on the river on the final table and showed a hand every time. I have seen him limp monsters(TT+, AJ+) from any position .. even when it was three handed he was limping buttons with very strong holdings and 4/5 x-ing it with weak aces.
the hand: at 800-1600 Harshad opens to 3600 from button, and I call from BB with A5o … flop is A-10-2 rainbow .. i check call a 6k bet … turn is 3 putting a backdoor flush draw on the board … i check, harshad bets 12k and i call … river is another ace .. i check and Harshad overbet shoves 95k in a pot of 43k.
call or fold? also .. what about a lead on the river?
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imo.. the check call was correct line on flop and turn.. on river i think bet/fold would be the optimal line (maybe I m result oriented here as we are put to a difficult spot… do check my hand advice post on the Aces unltd FT hand with Kanishka.. similiar situation ).. but when we check, our plan is to that we are trying to induce a bluff.. now the villain has done exactly that.. now we may get value-owned by this line as he could have filled up, but we have to follow what we set out to do in the first place (check river to induce).. thus I would call..
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it looks like a full boat to me…but still nobody can fold here..these are the types of hand which knock a player out in heads-up play…
i would i have min raised to 24K on turn so that i can get some additional info about opponent hands…if he shoves on my min raise i would fold..if he calls min raise noway disaster can be avoided…river is kind of brutal, way hand is played it is a obvious call…only a ninja assassin can fold trip aces in this spot -
stacks .. raman: 106k, Harshad: 119k approx.
flop and turn is standard, 80bbish deep with reads that villain overbets nuts on river id fold+i wouldnt expect this type of players to be aware of their image and give them credit for bluff shoving 2x+ pot on rivers that absolutely smack our check-call range ….
river lead (with intention of bet-folding) is ok vs weaker players (though in this case on the river im still assuming that we are ahead due to villain’s tendency of 5xing pre with Ax, so my check is to induce another bet, but when he shoves its a fold, i dont like a lead here at all) …
in general though (more applicable for cash games): leading ranges needs to be balanced, sporadic leading/block betting in spots like this would open us up to a shit ton of ugly spots vs good regs, vs tourney players with shallow stacks i am hard pressed to find situations where i like leading after c-c two streets in single raise hu pots
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I think when we are playing with someone so unpredictable…. its better to extract more information pre flop so as to avoid tough spots.
Since sitting so deep HU, i would re raise pre flop to know where we stand.Since the hand played out this way, I would fold on the river, as he knows when you called on flop and then on turn, that you have an ace on such a board. The river ace gives him perfect opportunity to overshove and getting called by any Ace. I would expect a boat most of the time.
If there was not a river Ace, I would expect him to value bet with strong Ace/two pair or checking a bluff.I can remember a similar hand in last year Pokerstars carribean tour when Hall had a straight and he folded to a similar overshove on the river. The opponent had a boat. That hand was played out exactly the same.
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In general, an unorthodox amateur is going to have the goods whenever he overbet shoves a river for so much against a top pro. In this case, your line looks very much like exactly what you have- a weak ace. Once you have called two streets on such a dry board, your range looks like a variety of pocket pairs and lots of weaker aces. I am finding it very difficult to see what he would try and turn into a bluff.
On the value side though, he could have plenty of stronger aces which is he jamming for value, flopped or turn sets etc which he would play exactly this way given your description. It’s pretty sick to fold an Ace here, and I doubt I could do it in game, but it does seem like a fold from this description, because I cant see what he would bluff with in this way here and his value range kills you.
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I would have been quite surprised to see him have a boat here … just because of my reads … i expected him to limp TT pre, raise 4x/5x with 22/33, and a2/a3. also, I expected him to limp AJ+.
So this was a situation where the range of hands that beat us is very narrow, but at the same time so is the likelihood of him overbet bluffing the river. What should I give more weight to? -
Ok.. I did this math as a stoving exercise.. and it turns out imo that we are +CEV to make this call (after taking into consideration your reads and preflop bet sizing tells on the villain).. here is my exercise details :
I put his preflop range on 57% (no pairs, ATs-A6s, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+ etc suited, K6o+, Q7o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 74o+, 64o+, 53o+, 42o+, 32o+)
Flop barrel doesn’t narrow his range any further.
Turn barrel narrows his range to 24% (AT-A6, KJ+, K5-K4s, QJ+, Q5-Q4s, J5-J4s, T3-T2, 64+, 53+, 42+, 32+)
River shove narrows his above turn (24%) range into 57% bluffs (KJ+, K5-K4, QJ, Q5-Q4) and 43% (AT-A6, 45) that beat us. (On a side note, a river-check are 8.4% of above range which have showdown value and wouldn’t be shoved on by the villain).
The pot is 139K. We have to call 95K to win 139K.
0.57*139 – 0.43*95 = +39K
Correct me if I am doing something wrong in the above steps..
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On the issue of weight-age to be given, I broke the (0.57*139) part of the equation further. The villain has to be able to bluff-shove 52% of the his bluff-shove range to make this a break even call for us. If you think villain has a higher capacity (>52%) to make this move, we go into +CEV territory. If any lesser we are -CEV.
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I would have been quite surprised to see him have a boat here … just because of my reads … i expected him to limp TT pre, raise 4x/5x with 22/33, and a2/a3. also, I expected him to limp AJ+.
So this was a situation where the range of hands that beat us is very narrow, but at the same time so is the likelihood of him overbet bluffing the river. What should I give more weight to?does villain have a bluffing range in this spot? frm ur previous posts it seemed that this river line is consistent with how villains plays nutted hands, however if ive seen villain overbet bluff before i’d snap cll
@vinay: EV may not be the right way of going about this, we need to be right close to 70% of the time which means villain’s hand range has to be massively skewed towards bluffs for us to be right, with reads provided this may not be the case
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@sunny yeah.. that’s why I have posted the “weight-age” post after the EV calculations.. basically villain has to be have the ability to bluff-shove more than 52% of the times (his bluff shove range).. thus this goes into player profiling territory.. considering the villain only does this with nuts.. I am estimating villain’s probability of bluff shoving to be only at 20% (yes still 20%.. one can never rule out bluffs completely)… I know I am contradicting my 1st EV calculation saying that it is +EV but in the second post (where I say it break even if villain does this 52%) I am implying that it maybe -EV..
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